Senegal’s home gas reserves shall be primarily used to supply electrical energy. Authorities count on that domestic gas infrastructure projects will come on-line between 2025 and 2026, supplied there isn’t a delay. The monetization of those important vitality sources is on the foundation of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the global technology group Wärtsilä conducted in-depth research that analyse the financial impression of the varied gas-to-power methods available to Senegal. Two very totally different technologies are competing to satisfy the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle fuel turbines (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These research have revealed very vital system price variations between the two major gas-to-power applied sciences the nation is currently considering. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, gas engines are in reality significantly better suited than combined cycle gasoline generators to harness power from Senegal’s new fuel assets cost-effectively, the study reveals. Total price differences between the two applied sciences might attain as a lot as 480 million USD till 2035 depending on scenarios.
Two competing and very completely different applied sciences
The state-of-the-art power combine fashions developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised power situations to identify the price optimum way to deliver new era capacity for a particular nation, shows that ICE and CCGT applied sciences present important price differences for the gas-to-power newbuild program running to 2035.
Although these two technologies are equally proven and dependable, they are very totally different when it comes to the profiles during which they’ll operate. CCGT is a technology that has been developed for the interconnected European electrical energy markets, where it may possibly perform at 90% load factor at all times. On the opposite hand, versatile ICE know-how can operate effectively in all operating profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to any other generation applied sciences that will make up the country’s vitality combine.
In explicit our examine reveals that when working in an electricity community of limited measurement similar to Senegal’s 1GW national grid, relying on CCGTs to significantly increase the community capacity would be extremely expensive in all possible scenarios.
Cost variations between the technologies are defined by a selection of factors. First of all, sizzling climates negatively impact the output of gas generators greater than it does that of gas engines.
Secondly, because of Senegal’s anticipated entry to low cost domestic fuel, the operating costs turn out to be much less impactful than the investment prices. In different words, as a end result of low gasoline prices decrease operating prices, it’s financially sound for the country to depend on ICE energy vegetation, that are less expensive to build.
Technology modularity also performs a key role. Senegal is predicted to require an extra 60-80 MW of era capability each year to find a way to meet the growing demand. This is much lower than the capability of typical CCGTs vegetation which averages 300-400 MW that should be in-built one go, leading to unnecessary expenditure. Engine power vegetation, on the other hand, are modular, which implies they can be constructed precisely as and when the country needs them, and further extended when required.
The numbers at play are significant. The model reveals that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT vegetation on the expense of ICE-gas, it will result in as a lot as 240 million dollars of additional cost for the system by 2035. เกจวัดอาร์กอน between the applied sciences can even enhance to 350 million USD in favor of ICE technology if Senegal also chooses to build new renewable energy capacity throughout the subsequent decade.
Risk-managing potential gasoline infrastructure delays
The improvement of gas infrastructure is a posh and lengthy endeavour. Program delays usually are not unusual, inflicting gas supply disruptions that can have an enormous financial impact on the operation of CCGT vegetation.
Nigeria is conscious of something about that. Only final year, important fuel supply points have triggered shutdowns at a few of the country’s largest gas turbine energy vegetation. Because Gas generators function on a steady combustion course of, they require a continuing provide of fuel and a secure dispatched load to generate constant energy output. If the availability is disrupted, shutdowns happen, placing an excellent pressure on the overall system. ICE-Gas crops however, are designed to regulate their operational profile over time and improve system flexibility. Because of their flexible operating profile, they were in a position to keep a much higher degree of availability
The study took a deep dive to analyse the monetary influence of 2 years delay within the fuel infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the nation decides to speculate into gas engines, the value of gas delay would be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would result in a staggering 770 million dollars in extra value.
Whichever method you look at it, new ICE-Gas generation capability will minimize the entire value of electrical energy in Senegal in all potential scenarios. If Senegal is to satisfy electricity demand progress in a cost-optimal method, at least 300 MW of recent ICE-Gas capability will be required by 2026.
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